Mr. Trump won the perennial swing state in 2016 by just under 113,000 votes. Incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally lost in 2018 to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and then was appointed to the late Senator John McCain's seat. It is the states that do not consistently vote along party lines that determine whether a candidate will win or lose: Swing states. For Mr Trump, this is now effectively a defensive election. However, states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont, which all have Republican governors, as well as in Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas, and Montana, which currently have Democratic governors. They have swung back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years. Biden and Harris later doubled down on maintaining the practice. Voters in Iowa and Nevada will need to cast their ballots by 10pm ET. Mr. Trump has visited the state a dozen times, including a rally on the Sunday before Election Day in Hickory, North Carolina. U.S. Presidential and Election History The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect. Four other states to watch were the southern Sun Belt states of Florida, Arizona, Texas and North Carolina. In the 2016 election, Donald J. Trump eked out an Electoral College victory by winning six out of 10 of the most competitive swing states. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is … Because 38 out of the 50 states have voted for the same party since the 2000 presidential election, it’s relatively easy to predict which states will vote for a Democratic candidate and which will vote for a Republican. CBS News has projected Biden won Minnesota. First on March 17 in the state primary, when they consider candidates competing for the parties’ nominations, and then on November 3, when they choose from among the two major parties’ nominated candidates and any independent candidate or candidates from other political parties that get listed on the ballot. [34], Since most states use a winner-takes-all arrangement, in which the candidate with the most votes in that state receives all of the state's electoral votes, there is a clear incentive to focus almost exclusively on only a few undecided states. Mr. Trump narrowly flipped the state red in 2016; the shift, along with other Rust Belt states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, helped him secure the White House. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and gubernatorial tickets. Unpredictable and large, Florida is not to be ignored in the presidential election. The president won in Florida in 2016, grabbing a sizable 29 Electoral College votes, the nation’s largest swing state. Early voter turnout in the state surpassed 2016's total voter turnout. 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These are the 13 states to keep an eye on during Election Day: As of 11 p.m. The high-stakes game of winning over swing states means candidates spend 75 percent or more of their campaign budget on courting them. Hudak says that states including Maine and New Hampshire "have a lot of moderate, independent-minded voters...who drive that two-party competitiveness.". While it may be some time before we get a final result, North Carolina is the one remaining uncalled state that Mr Trump is a favourite to win. The Cook Political Report sees Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups. The Electoral College was created as a compromise. [36], Term for any American state where neither party's candidate for election has overwhelming support, The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated. Candidates almost exclusively visit swing states on the campaign trail, often skipping other states entirely unless they’re fundraising. Winning Georgia would likely get Mr Biden beyond 270, but the state currently has a tight margin of 0.2 per cent. Note that this takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by end result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but the tipping points that most mattered for assembling a 270 electoral vote coalition were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. A U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that mail-in ballots postmarked by 5 p.m. on Election Day should be accepted until November 12, the News & Observer reports. WATCH: America 101: What is a Swing State? This is the last in a three-part series on swing states in the 2020 election. Former President Obama joined Biden on the campaign trail in Michigan on the Saturday before Election Day. States of the Race. [25] Other potential swing states in 2020 include states designated as "tipping point" states by FiveThirtyEight [26], Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. Mr Biden was ahead in the polls for Michigan, a state which has large white suburbs, union members and black voters. Patterns changed when Mr Obama won there in 2008. States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. There are 10 states that everyone has had their eyes on in this election, most evident from the money spent on advertising and travel in Mr Trump and Mr Biden's campaigns. “No Republican has won the presidency unless they’ve won Ohio,” says Schultz. ", 3. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year. “After 1800, states began to take a firm approach to making sure that their numbers were both collected and reported. If current trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections continue, the closest results in 2020 will occur in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine's second congressional district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's second congressional district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin,[24] with Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Four" most likely to decide the electoral college. In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for Senators and Congressional Representatives. Many people from traditional blue states are moving to the tar heel state. Nearly 100million Americans voted ahead of Election Day - that's roughly 75percent of the number of people who casted their ballots in 2016. In Western Michigan, long a Republican stronghold, Democrats are optimistic that success in recent elections indicate that the race is tighter than the polls show. In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. “Before the 1990s, there was a good number of liberal Republicans in the North and conservative Democrats in the South," says Hudak. News Corp is a network of leading companies in the worlds of diversified media, news, education, and information services. [30] Likewise, analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing, with Colorado (increasingly Democratic) and Ohio (increasingly Republican) becoming less competitive, and Georgia and Arizona slowly turning into swing states. Influential States, The Bush campaign memo detailing its look at the swing states (PDF file), elections in which the winner lost the popular vote, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Swing_state&oldid=987201342, United States presidential elections terminology, Political party strength by state in the United States, Short description is different from Wikidata, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 5 November 2020, at 15:40. In 2016, suburban voters turned out for Mr Trump. Mr. Trump won the perennial swing state in 2016 by just under 113,000 votes. They are the battleground states that candidates will target with campaign visits, advertising and staffing. The party became known for supporting abolition and keeping the Union together. She's running against Captain … [35], This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of Nate Silver for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory. Forty-eight out of 50 states have a “winner take all” system, meaning that whoever gains the popular vote wins all of that state’s electoral college votes. In 2000, the election results came down to Florida's win, which George W. Bush claimed by a margin of just 537 votes. Twice a week we compile our most fascinating features and deliver them straight to you. Mr Biden has won Michigan in a positive turn for the Democratic campaign. Before 2016, Pennsylvania was a Democrat state with deep ties to the trade unions. The Cook Political Report sees Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups. Mr. Trump won more union votes nationwide than any Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan; in Pennsylvania, he won White voters without college educations by a margin of more than 2 to 1. President Trump took six out of 10 swing states in the 2016 and won the Electoral College vote because of that. The Visa Waiver Program (VWP) allows citizens of participating countries* to travel to the United States without a visa for stays of 90 days or less, when they meet all requirements. There are 538 electoral college votes total, and presidential candidates need 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Since 1964, the candidate that has won Florida has always won the White House, apart from in 1992. As time went on, politicians got to know what state constituencies looked like, and that competitiveness grew as well,” says Hudak. With its 29 electoral college votes — and Mr. Trump's adopted home state since he changed his residence to Mar-a-Lago — Florida was a coveted prize. Dozens of voters in Alachua County, Florida, a heavily Democratic county, reported receiving emails purporting to come from the right-wing group the Proud Boys, threatening to "come after" them unless they vote for Mr. Trump. Washington DC also gets three electoral college votes, meaning a total of 538 electors form the Electoral College. As of 11 p.m. on election night, CBS News estimated Wisconsin is a toss-up. Elections Process If Mr Biden picked up all three of those Rust Belt states, he would pass the 270 mark no matter how Mr Trump does in other swing states. It didn’t pick up steam until the hotly contested 2000 election, when journalists covered battleground states like Florida with increasing fervor. As of 11 p.m. on election night, CBS News estimated Georgia as a toss-up. “Swing states are the presidential campaign,” says Hudak. Close presidential elections throughout American history have borne this out: Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in 1948 by winning by less than one percent of the popular vote in then-swing states like Ohio, California, Indiana, Illinois and New York—a race so close that newspaper headlines mistakenly proclaimed Dewey the winner. And such states have been in play since the election of the nation's second president. The key path to victory open to Mr Biden is to reverse the “Rust Belt” losses suffered by Hillary Clinton in 2016. ⚠️ Follow our US election 2020 live blog for the latest news & updates. In fact, the youngest three generations (born in 1965 and later) amount to 54 percent of registered voters. The presidential race was so close that newspaper headlines mistakenly reported Mr Dewey as the winner. The news of Biden’s lead came after Philadelphia gave Mr Biden an advantage of over 28,000 votes, which eventually won him the 20 electoral votes. In American presidential elections, each state is free to decide the method by which its electors to the Electoral College will be chosen. / CBS News. Polls in Georgia close at 7pm ET and at 7:30pm ET in Ohio and North Carolina, while polls in New Hampshire close at 8pm EST. The electoral college system does usually reflect the popular vote – presidents have won the electoral vote while losing the popular vote just five times in US history. Despite recent gains, political strategists and organizers warn that Nevada remains a swing state this year. SWING states can make or break US elections, and 13 of them will be the key to victory for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the 2020 race for president. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the Electoral College, as Democratic nominee Walter Mondale required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, Republican Ronald Reagan still would have won by a large margin. To become president either candidate needs to win a majority of the 538 electors; ie 270 electors. November 4, 2020 / 7:19 AM Minnesota has not chosen a Republican for president since 1972, but Mr. Trump narrowly lost the state in 2016. Use our maps, polls and analysis to follow top battlegrounds in the 2020 election. [8] For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former. Learn more about quality higher-education opportunities in the U.S. that you will not find anywhere else in the world. The winner of the 2020 election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. [6] Instead, the tipping-point state that year was Michigan, as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The state of Colorado is classified as one of the mountain states; this is mainly because the state encompasses the majority of the southern Rocky Mountains. Florida is almost always close in a presidential election and Mr Trump has now won that state. When citizens leave liberal-leaning coasts or major cities to settle in smaller cities or more rural areas, they can alter the balance between parties. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. A-Z to U.S. All 50 US states and Washington DC have a set number of "electors" in the electoral college – roughly proportionate to the size of each state. Hudak credits the highly competitive 1800 presidential election between Aaron Burr and Thomas Jefferson as heightening political interest in winning over specific states. © 2020 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. Mr. Trump won the deep red state by 807,179 votes in 2016, or about 9 points. Vice President Mike Pence held a campaign rally in Portsmouth on October 21 as part of an aggressive travel schedule through battleground states. The swing states in the US vary and not necessarily by region. The history of American elections have proved the importance of swing states. If it hadn't been for Covid-19, Mr Biden would have accepted the Democratic nomination in Wisconsin. The Founding Fathers were divided on how to pick a president. CBS polling shows that Mr. Trump's razor-thin 2016 victory — just 10,704 votes — could be threatened this year by how he's handled the coronavirus. Hillary Clinton didn't visit it once during her 2016 campaign, and despite polling well there, she lost the state to Mr Trump. October 6: The Southeast. It swings between major parties — the state supported Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and Republican George W. Bush in 2000, for instance. By securing Florida, Ohio and Iowa Mr Trump has made his chances much better, nevertheless, Mr Biden has multiple paths open to him, meaning he is not reliant on any one state. No Democratic presidential nominee has won Arizona in 24 years, since Bill Clinton took the state, and the state has gone red in every presidential election since 1952 with the exception of 1996. Although dozens of angry supporters of President Donald Trump converged on vote-counting centres in Phoenix as the returns went against him on Wednesday. These “swing states” have populations that are closely divided politically. State Republican leaders and the Trump campaign filed appeals to the decision on Thursday. On election day itself, Al Gore was ahead by 202 votes. Track the most competitive presidential swing states and key Senate races. Swing states in the US vary and they're not necessarily designated by region. And in 2000, the results of the election came down to who won Florida, which George W. Bush claimed by a margin of just 537 votes. The 2020 presidential election could be decided by just a handful of states — and if the race is anything like 2016's, only a small margin of votes in those states could determine the outcome. The most recent instance was in 2016, when Mr Trump won the electoral college but Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, won the popular vote. Frequently Asked Questions. Find out more, 'DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN' mistakenly made the headlines on election night in 1948, UAE scraps defence of 'honour' crimes and decriminalises alcohol in sweeping legal reforms, Ministers eat their words over Marcus Rashford's free school meals campaign, Joe Biden and the special relationship: What the election result means for the UK and Brexit, Strictly Come Dancing, Movie Week talking points: Ranvir Singh tops scoreboard on a night of surprises, 270 electoral college votes needed for victory, Joe Biden's poll lead over Donald Trump in six key swing states. A Democrat usually takes the Mid-Atlantic states, including New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware, along with New England, particularly Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington, along with Hawaii.[4][5]. That would mean flipping Pennsylvania back to Democrat blue. It has been noted that urban areas tend to vote Democratic and rural areas tend to lean Republican. [2] The battlegrounds may change in certain election cycles and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the ideological appeal of the nominees. CBS News has projected that Joe Biden has won New Hampshire. This year marks America's 59th presidential election and it is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 46.1%. The state voted for former President Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Mr. Trump won Iowa by 10 points in 2016. For instance, the swing states of Ohio, Connecticut, Indiana, New Jersey and New York were key to the outcome of the 1888 election. Alerts and Messages for U.S. visitors to Thailand. While the concept is nearly as old as the Electoral College, the term “swing state” is a relatively modern creation, first used by the New York Times in 1936 while Franklin D. Roosevelt was campaigning in the West. Hudak adds that as the country has evolved, the number and identity of swing states has evolved as well. The claim that “every vote counts” is especially true in swing states. ET on election night, CBS news estimated Arizona is leaning Democratic. GOP attorneys said in a letter this week that Clark County requested to place cameras throughout the ballot counting facility, and complained that counting board members are mishandling ballots in a way that "undermines the American norm of ballot secrecy." Despite President Trump’s large early lead, results emerging from Pennsylvania on Friday put Mr Biden ahead, with 49.6 per cent, to Mr Trump’s 49.2 per cent. The state and its capital, Atlanta, are focal points of African-American culture, and it is growing increasingly diverse. The Constitution grants each state a number of electors based on the combined total of the state’s delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives. These laws have been challenged by electors voting for someone else on occasion, but in July, the US Supreme Court ruled that electors must follow the popular vote in states that have passed such a law. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan's national margin of eighteen percent. Nearly 1 in 5 Arizona residents are 65 or older. Jessica Pearce Rotondi is the author of What We Inherit: A Secret War and a Family’s Search for Answers. For example, in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Virginia and Colorado compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald J. Trump performed over standard Republican expectations in the Upper Midwest, such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. [29], Ten weeks before the 2020 presidential election, statistical analytics website FiveThirtyEight noted that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes," with some states moving rightward, other states moving leftward, and two states (Florida and North Carolina) described as "perennial" swing states. The Tar Heel State is Trump’s best shot at a win of the four states, but not exactly a given. The term “swing state” refers to the unpredictability of voter parties in a certain state during an election. According to CBS News polling, most Hispanic voters feel the Trump campaign is paying too little attention to the needs and concerns of Hispanic people. [35] Additionally, campaigns stopped mounting nationwide electoral efforts in the last few months near/at the ends of the blowout 2008 election, but rather targeted only a handful of battlegrounds. For example, the states in the 1984 election with the tightest results were Minnesota and Massachusetts. U.S. Citizens with emergencies, please call 02-205-4000, Outside of Office Hours, contact: 02-205-4000. Be in the know. Georgia has not voted for a Democrat since backing Bill Clinton, a southerner from Arkansas, in 1992. In the 1960 presidential election between Richard M. Nixon and John F. Kennedy, 10 states were won by less than two percent of the vote. The number of electors each state gets is based on population. Biden’s current lead in Georgia has given the Democrats a strong lead, as a win in this previously Republican state would leave the leader of the Democrats just one point short of presidential victory. Mr Trump surprised pollsters by winning Florida handily, despite predictions of a close race or a Biden victory. Get the latest breaking news delivered straight to your inbox. Nevada counts votes as long as they are postmarked for election day, meaning that a final result could be several days away. [17][18] On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points in order to win the Electoral College, as Trump, the Republican nominee, won the tipping-point state of Wisconsin by less than 1 percent. The nine key swing states have been crucial in the election, with Pennsylvania finally tipping the balance on Saturday afternoon to win an electoral college majority for the Democrats. A recent rise in coronavirus cases, however, could sway that key demographic for Mr. Trump. The other states have yet to be projected. Women will be a big factor in the primary and general elections because they are a majority of the electorate, especially in the Democratic Party. Pennsylvania, which offers the biggest number of electoral college votes and may take several days to report final results, is much tighter and could go either way. Biden appears to have cut into the president's 2016 support levels with key groups like men, White, non-college voters and seniors. [6] Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer. Shortly after midnight ET on Wednesday, CBS News projected Mr. Trump as the winner in Ohio. It was given this name due to the ruddy silt that this river obtains from the surrounding mountains. It is unclear if Mr. Trump's unfavorable coronavirus response is significant enough to determine how the state swings. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Martha McSally. It was the home state of the godfather of modern US conservatism, Barry Goldwater, and for much of the Obama administration was seen as a lab for hardline anti-immigration policies. [3] The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. 1. "It couldn't be closer… poll after poll after poll in Georgia show it too close to call," Bluestein said. (That ties with New York for the most after California and Texas.) California, the largest state, has 55 electoral votes, Texas, the next largest, gets 38. In September, voters in both Florida and Texas said the president would do a better job handling the economy, and many more Texas voters said Mr. Trump's economic policies would help their family's financial situation. Mr. Trump carried Pennsylvania by less than 1% in 2016. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. Regardless of the popular vote, the next president will be decided by which candidate, Mr. Trump or Biden, can win at least 270 votes in the Electoral College. Women make up 58 percent of Florida’s registered Democrats, compared to men’s 39 percent. [12][13] Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the 2000 election. Ohio is a crucial victory, not just for its 18 Electoral College votes but because the winner of Ohio has also taken the White House for the last 14 presidential elections, including when the state turned red in 2016. "And, you know, it is so much harder to run as the incumbent. Under Florida’s rules, only registered members of a party may vote on March 17. However, with swing states there is no consistent favorable party and any candidate of the party they represent can take all the electoral votes and win the state. Joe Biden has won five swing states and lost two, with ballot counting continuing in some states: Mr Trump remains very unlikely to win the national vote and that lack of nationwide support leaves him with only a narrow “path” of states that he has to win to secure the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory (see an explanation of how the EC works here). More Michigan voters say his response made them feel angry, rather than confident, and most said they think the Trump administration's policies are making the outbreak worse. Arizona. The Trump campaign and Republicans in Nevada are threatening the battleground state's most populous county with legal action over what they argue is a "blatant disregard for accountability and transparency" in the ballot counting process. Iowa, on Sunday to campaign, and the campaign announced shortly after the poll was released that Ivanka Trump will visit Des Moines on Monday. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said: “Right now Georgia remains too close to call. Mr. Trump narrowly lost the state in 2016. Similarly, Barack Obama's narrow victory in Indiana in the 2008 election inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. FACT CHECK: We strive for accuracy and fairness. - HISTORY", "A recent voting history of the 15 Battleground states - National Constitution Center", "State Electoral Vote History: 1900 to Present", "Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State", "As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage", "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP", "Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump", "The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing", "Trump will be the 4th president to win the Electoral College after getting fewer votes than his opponent", "Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million", "Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else", "Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win", Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses, Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes, "How Dem insiders rank the 2020 contenders", "The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years.
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