Nevada was another state where Trump didn’t overperform his polls in 2016. Available for everyone, funded by readers. This sign-up form is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. As in 2016, the polls are tight in North Carolina. Befitting its toss-up status, the final live-interview poll in Arizona, an NBC News/Marist poll released Monday, showed a tied race in Arizona, 48 percent to 48 percent. President Donald Trump is in a deeper hole heading into Election Day than he was four years ago, when he stunned Hillary Clinton and most of America. What if Trump loses and refuses to concede? Among people of color generally, Biden's advantage has increased from 59% to 31% in September to 69% to 27% now. Likely voters are more apt to consider Biden the candidate who would unite the country (61% Biden to 33% Trump), who is honest and trustworthy (58% Biden to 33% Trump), who cares about people like you (58% Biden to 38% Trump), who has a clear plan to solve the nation's problems (55% to 39%) and who would keep Americans safe from harm (55% to 43%). Georgia has raced away from Trump in the polls: He led by 4 points on the eve of the 2016 election and won by 5 — the rare state where Trump didn’t overperform significantly on Election Day. Your guide to the year-round campaign cycle. Biden enters the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton was in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory. Trump komt weg met 28 procent. After this standardization process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average. and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public. The survey finds that among likely voters, a small majority, 54% say they intend to cast their ballots on Election Day, 30% plan to cast ballots by mail and 14% say they will vote early in-person. Biden's favorability ratings have also improved, with 52% of Americans now saying they have a positive impression of the former vice president, compared with 39% who have a positive view of Trump. Six in 10 Americans say they are confident that votes will be cast and counted accurately in the presidential election, up slightly since August. Trump out-ran his polls there in 2016, winning the state by almost 4 points. That makes his current 5-point deficit appear more daunting. Trump’s only leads are in surveys by two Republican pollsters, while the other surveys show Biden ahead — and, in a key difference from 2016, at or above 50 percent. Compared with the last national CNN poll, the partisan composition of this poll is only slightly more Democratic (33% of all adults say they are Democrats now, compared with 30% in early September) and no less Republican (28% GOP now vs. 27% in early September). Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election. Democratic candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 53-43 percent margin, in a Fox News national survey of likely voters conducted after a … Most voters in the poll (64%) say that Trump has not done enough to denounce white supremacist groups, after being asked to do so at the debate and instead saying that the Proud Boys should "stand back and stand by." FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +1.82016 result: Clinton +2.4. Biden enters Election Day with a more comfortable lead than Hillary Clinton had four years ago. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. It is important to note that these increases in support for Biden have not come alongside substantial decreases in backing for Trump. Biden is in better shape than Clinton in the most-likely tipping-point state — but not by much. Joe Biden salutes supporters after speaking during a drive-in campaign rally at Lexington Technology Park on Nov. 02, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pa. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images. Likely voters broadly prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues that voters consider critically important in the race, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), health care (59% to 39%), racial inequality in America (62% to 36%), nominations to the Supreme Court (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). 2020 Elections . Most say they don't expect Trump to accept the results and concede (58%), while 71% say Biden would. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +42016 result: Trump +5.1. We present the latest polls with those caveats in mind. Trump’s narrow 2016 loss in New Hampshire came after entering Election Day within 4 points in the polls. The issues that matter most to voters continue to vary dramatically with a voter's presidential preference. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.72016 result: Trump +0.7. CNN Poll: Biden widens lead over Trump following debate, See the moment CNN called the race for Joe Biden, Trump was golfing when election called for Biden, Watch people across the world celebrate Joe Biden's win, Van Jones: For a lot of people it's a good day, 'It brings tears to my eyes': Susan Rice on Harris' historic win. The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. Among Biden's supporters, 66% call coronavirus extremely important to their vote vs. 21% among Trump backers, 63% say race relations are important vs. 16% of Trump voters, 58% consider health care extremely important vs. 25% of Trump supporters and 51% say climate change is extremely important compared with just 5% of Trump supporters. This week, America voted to make politics. But Trump does not appear to have made any gains among the groups his campaign needs to attract in order to dent Biden's longstanding lead. The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS October 1 through 4 among a random national sample of 1,205 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 1,001 likely voters. For Biden to win, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states. Why do ballot counts take so long? Juweek Adolphe, Tue 3 Nov 2020 07.17 EST We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. No thanks. It was an early sign the night was breaking his way in a state where the polls close early (7:30 p.m. Eastern). Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls. Among Trump's backers, though, 76% say they will vote in-person on Election Day. White Christian support for Trump slips Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, it is plus or minus 3.6 points for results among likely voters. You can unsubscribe at any time and you can contact us here. This is the only one of the 13 states in this analysis where Trump currently leads in the polling average — even after a Quinnipiac poll out on Monday gave Biden a 4-point advantage. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year. That shift includes substantial gains for Biden among white women with college degrees and women of color. A poll is not a prediction of how the election will ultimately turn out but instead is a snapshot of the race as it currently stands. President-elect Biden addresses the nation. While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country can point to how the race will develop. They’d have to be way off for Trump to win there again. Biden’s 8-point advantage in Michigan — the state Trump won by the narrowest margin in 2016 — is nearly twice Hillary Clinton’s pre-2016 lead. Joe Biden has won the presidency, toppling Donald Trump after four years of upheaval in the White House. Most of Trump's supporters, though, say that they do believe the President would concede (63%). But in order to make a real challenge there this year, he’d have to overcome a bigger Biden advantage of nearly 10 points. In last month's poll, those figures were 52% Democratic to 42% Republican. The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat in Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%. County executive explains, CNN's Collins reports on mood inside the West Wing, Meet the candidates who made history in the 2020 election, Arizona vote counting site preparing for more protests, Ana Navarro: What happened in Miami may not happen in Arizona, Dana Bash reports on Trump's mood as Biden eyes 270, Democrats' bid for control of the Senate comes up short, Biden on election night: Your patience is commendable, new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Those voters who say they watched last week's debate largely see Biden as having done the best job (57%), with only 26% saying Trump did best, similar to the divide in a. FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +8.52016 result: Trump +9. The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win. The latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally. (M. Scott Mahaskey/Politico) | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO, FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +1.92016 result: Trump +8.1. The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Frank Hulley-Jones and FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.82016 result: Clinton +1.5. CNN peilde zoals altijd ook. The former vice president leads in several of those critical battlegrounds, but by more narrow margins than his national advantage. Trump's backers are far more likely than Biden supporters to say crime and safety (51% extremely important among Trump supporters vs. 33% among Biden supporters) and the economy (48% among Trump supporters, 36% among Biden supporters) are top concerns in their vote. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.32016 result: Trump +0.8. Democrats and their media are telling us to trust them and not our own two eyes. On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners. First published on Tue 3 Nov 2020 04.04 EST. One point of agreement emerges, though: About half of both Biden (53%) and Trump (48%) supporters call Supreme Court nominations extremely important. Among white men without college degrees, for example, Trump's support has increased from 61% in September to 67% now. Biden supporters continue to be far more likely than Trump supporters to say they will vote before Election Day, including 41% who plan to vote by mail and 19% who say they will vote early. The shifts in this poll are similar to those seen in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday, which was conducted after the presidential debate but before the, The poll suggests the debate itself may have helped to boost Biden. But Trump is entering with only a 1-point lead — a troubling sign after he essentially matched his polls when he won the state by 9 points in 2016. Registered voters who support Biden are becoming increasingly confident that votes in the country will be cast and counted accurately (75% now vs. 65% in August), while the share of Trump supporters who feel that way has softened some (from 50% to 44%). She ended up losing in the electoral college. He and Biden are neck-and-neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead in the FiveThirtyEight average. If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. BREAKING: New CNN poll … The final New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden ahead by 11 points — though Trump is a little closer in other surveys. That includes two surveys on Monday: an NBC News/Marist poll showing Biden ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, and a Monmouth University poll showing similar numbers among its various turnout models. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.62016 result: Trump +1.2. Here’s a state-by-state guide to the latest polls at the end of the election in 13 of the 14 states rated either as "Toss Ups," "Lean Republican" or "Lean Democratic" in POLITICO's Election Forecast (minus Alaska, where there is little public polling): FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.42016 result: Trump +3.5. Unlike some of the core battlegrounds, polling in Texas has slowed down at the end of the election. Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election.. Trump is the first one-term president in more than 25 years. Of the Great Lakes battleground states Trump flipped in 2016, coronavirus-ravaged Wisconsin has been his weakest in public polling. Among registered voters in the poll, 35% consider themselves Democrats, 30% Republican, those figures were 33% and 30% respectively in the previous CNN poll. Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota was an underrated surprise from 2016. In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally Nov. 2, 2020 at Wilkes-Barre Scranton International Airport in Avoca, Penn., on the eve of the national election. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.62016 result: Clinton +0.4. By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director, Updated 0921 GMT (1721 HKT) October 7, 2020. The former vice president has also made gains among younger voters, moderates and independents over the last month. Biden enters Election Day with a more comfortable lead than Hillary Clinton had four years ago. The live-interview polls in the final two weeks of the race gave Biden a lead between 7 and 12 points. Although nearly all Americans agree (86%) that the loser of the presidential race has an obligation to concede once the results are certified, Trump supporters are slightly less likely to say that than they were in August (78% now vs. 83% in August, it was 94% among Biden supporters in both polls). Among people of color, 76% say Trump hasn't done enough to denounce such groups. All rights reserved. The Guardian has been tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election, Ashley Kirk, Pablo Gutiérrez, Although this is the first national CNN survey to report results among likely voters, a comparison of results among registered voters now to those from a survey about a month ago reveals Biden has made substantial gains in support among several key voting blocs. By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or updates from POLITICO and you agree to our privacy policy and terms of service. The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours before the election came from Iowa, where a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed the president ahead by 7 points. But the Register’s final poll was also better for Trump than the average in 2016 — and it was right. Voor het debat had Biden een kleine voorsprong van 56% en na het debat, jawel, van 60 procentpunten. (CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states. Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded. He’s down by at least twice that now: Two in-state academic pollsters showed Biden ahead by 8 points last week. He’s ahead by around 5 points, just a little above Clinton’s nearly 4-point lead four years ago. Biden has expanded his edge over Trump among women, from 57% to 37% in September to 66% to 32% now. That’s out of line with the average, which showed a closer race. The President's core supporters remain as supportive of him as they have been, if not more. The final live-caller poll, from Quinnipiac University, showed Biden ahead by 5 points — though Quinnipiac overestimated Democrats in the state in the 2018 midterms. There’s a slight gap between the live-interview polls — the final two, from CNN/SSRS and NBC News/Marist, showed Biden ahead by 6 points — and web surveys showing essentially a tied race. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be significantly more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to prevail. Biden does lead in the polling average, however, as other late surveys have given him the edge, including a 6-point lead in a New York Times/Siena College poll out on Sunday. When independents who lean toward one party or the other are added in, the results also show little movement, 53% of registered voters now are Democrats or lean that way, 43% are Republicans or lean that way. What the final polls say about the Trump-Biden race. But this makes no sense. © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.72016 result: Trump +3.6. Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. The two are about even over who would better handle the economy (50% say Biden, 48% Trump), similar to where they have been among registered voters in recent polling. CNN and other fake news outlets are now pushing fake polls. This article was amended on 28 October 2020 to clarify that Maine and Nebraska are alone in assigning their electoral college votes in proportion to the popular vote. FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +4.22016 result: Trump +0.2. But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out). Regardless of Biden's national lead, the race for the White House will ultimately come down to a handful of swing states that will drive the outcome in the Electoral College. But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. CNN came out with a poll showing Joe Biden ahead of President Trump by double digits. Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate. Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a … FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.92016 result: Trump +9.4.
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